Neighborhood
the Grand
Surprise, Arizona US
the Grand in Surprise, Arizona has a moderate investment profile, with prices about 8% above the city median and 8% below the state median. Gross yield is 5.2%, and prices are down 4.9% over the past year, showing some recent softness. The neighborhood carries a Red Flag score of 61, walkability of 45, and education in the 48th percentile, with a midrange school-district test-score percentile and an elevated overall risk score.
AI Summary•Updated May 2026
Area
6.11 mi²
ZIP Code
85374
County
Maricopa County
State
Arizona
Redfin — median sale & volumeZillow ZORI — asking rentFEMA National Risk Index v1.20OpenStreetMap — POIFBI UCR — state crimeEPA — radon zonesWashU ACAG — satellite PM2.5US Census ACS / TIGER 2024
Verified Price · Median Sale
$384,886
YoY-4.9%
Gross Rental Yield
5.2%
Listed rent · ZORI annualized
Red Flag Index
High
61 / 100
Walkability Score
45
OpenStreetMap POI density · national percentile
Education Score
48 / 100
Pre-pandemic SEDA (2018/19) · district proxy
AI Score
51
DistrictScore attractiveness · national model
the Grand Property Prices & Rental Yield
Verified Redfin sale data and Zillow ZORI asking rent for the Grand, Surprise.
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Sign in to view — freeMarket Economics Snapshot
May 2026| Metric | Value | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price | $384,886 | -4.9% |
| Price / Sq Ft (Verified) | $235/sqft | -1.4% |
| Asking Rent (Median) | $1,650/mo | -0.4% |
| Gross Rental Yield | 5.2% | — |
| Liquidity Score | 55 / 100 | Moderate |
| Homes Sold (Period) | 294 | +42.7% |
Is the Grand Safe? Natural-Hazard Risk
FEMA National Risk Index composite across eight hazards, plus inherited Arizona crime context.
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Sign in to view — free What Stands Out AI Insight
Above-average gross rental yield at 5.2%
Liquid resale market — liquidity 55/100
Active transaction volume — 294 homes sold last period
Flood risk is Very High (100/100)
Heat risk is Very High (100/100)
Insights are generated from the Grand's live DistrictScore metrics.
the Grand Environment & Safety
Satellite PM2.5 air-quality history, FBI UCR crime trend (Arizona-level, the finest official aggregation), EPA radon potential and point-source hazard screening.
Air Quality — PM2.5
2015–20244.8 µg/m³ Meets WHO guideline-11.8% since 2015
EPA 9WHO 5
20152024
Annual mean fine-particle (PM2.5) concentration at the the Grand centroid, satellite-derived (ACAG). References: WHO guideline 5 µg/m³ · EPA annual standard 9 µg/m³. Latest year ranks worse than 15% of U.S. neighborhoods.
Arizona Crime Trend
FBI UCR20132024
All crimes / 1k
Violent / 1k
| Year | Crimes / 1k | Violent / 1k | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22.1 | 4.2 | -4.8% |
| 2023 | 23.6 | 4.3 | -4.4% |
| 2022 | 25.1 | 4.5 | -0.1% |
| 2021 | 25.4 | 4.3 | -8.3% |
| 2020 | 27.1 | 4.8 | -4.3% |
| 2019 | 28.8 | 4.5 | — |
Reported at the state level — the finest official US crime aggregation; the Grand inherits the Arizona figures.
Radon Potential
EPAZone 2
Zone 2 — Moderate potential · the Grand
EPA radon zones estimate indoor radon potential county-wide (Zone 1 highest, Zone 3 lowest). Testing is recommended in all zones.
Walkability & Amenities in the Grand
Amenity density and pedestrian access from OpenStreetMap points of interest.
Walkability & Amenities
OpenStreetMap POI45
Car-Dependent
Walkability Score
7
Grocery
9
Dining
0
Schools
0
Universities
3
Hospitals
5
Pharmacies
4
Parks
0
Rail Transit
0
Coworking
POI counts are amenities within the Grand's boundary plus a 400 m walk buffer. Rail transit excludes bus stops.
the Grand vs Surprise vs Arizona
How the Grand benchmarks against its city and state medians.
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Sign in to view — freeBuying Property in the US as a Foreigner
Federal & Arizona tax facts for non-resident buyers, plus the latest local market news.
Buying as a Foreigner
US Tax & OwnershipApplies to everyone7
Capital Gains (Federal)
Long-term capital gains taxed federally at 0/15/20%, plus a 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax on higher incomes (2026).
Property Tax
Property tax: ~0.43% average effective rate (statewide average; set and collected locally).
State Income Tax
State income tax up to 2.5%; rental income is taxed at these rates.
State Capital Gains
Capital gains are taxed as ordinary income at state rates.
Transfer Tax
Real estate transfer tax: flat $2 per deed.
Assessment Cap
No Proposition 13-style assessment cap; property is reassessed at market value.
Mansion Tax / Rent Control
No statewide mansion tax or statewide rent control.
US citizens & tax residents7
Primary-Home Exclusion
Selling your main home: exclude up to $250k of gain (single) / $500k (married) if you owned and lived there 2 of the last 5 years.
1031 Like-Kind Exchange
A 1031 like-kind exchange defers capital gains tax on investment property; 45 days to identify, 180 to close. Real estate only.
Depreciation Recapture
Residential rentals depreciate over 27.5 years; on sale, recaptured depreciation is taxed up to 25% (Section 1250).
Mortgage Interest Deduction
Mortgage interest is deductible on up to $750k of home debt. The SALT cap rose to $40,000 for 2025-2029 (reverts to $10k in 2030).
Opportunity Zones
Opportunity Zones are now permanent (2025): reinvested capital gains get deferral plus a basis step-up, and are tax-free after 10 years.
Rental Income (Resident)
Rental income is reported on Schedule E; passive-loss rules (Section 469) limit deducting rental losses against other income.
1031 State Conformity
The state conforms to the federal 1031 like-kind exchange rules.
Foreign buyers (non-residents)5
FIRPTA (Foreign Sellers)
FIRPTA: the buyer withholds 15% of the gross sale price when a nonresident sells US property. It is an advance deposit, not the final tax.
Non-Resident Capital Gains
Nonresident sellers pay US capital gains tax (generally 15-20%) on the net gain via Form 1040-NR; FIRPTA withholding is credited.
Non-Resident Rental Tax
Nonresident rental income is taxed at 30% of gross by default, or on net income at graduated rates via a Section 871(d) election (W-8ECI).
Estate Tax (Non-Resident)
Nonresidents get only a $60,000 US estate-tax exemption (vs $13.99M for residents); US property above it is taxed up to 40%. Treaties may help.
ITIN Requirement
Nonresidents without an SSN need an ITIN (Form W-7) to file US tax returns, claim FIRPTA refunds, and report rental income.
Talk to a US real-estate tax advisor
FIRPTA, ITIN & Arizona property-tax guidance for foreign buyers
the Grand Real Estate FAQ
the Grand in Surprise, Arizona has a moderate profile. Prices are about 8% above the city median and 8% below the state median, gross yield is 5.2%, and prices are down 4.9% over the past year. The Red Flag score is 61.
Neighborhoods near the Grand
Compare the Grand with nearby neighborhoods in Surprise.
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